Japan-US Cooperation and Prospect of Tsai ing-wen's regime in Taiwan
Defense is the United States, and the economy is Taiwan, who relied on China.Professor Yasuhiro Matsuda (East Asian politics) of the University of Tokyo (East Asian Politics), which is facing the pressure of the current status change by China, is in the "prosperity and independent dilemma (from China)", which is facing the pressure of the current status of economy and military power."We are struggling to balance prosperity and independence."Afghanistan's instincts have fluctuated the US Biden administration's prestige, and Chinese media shakes Taiwanese public opinion, saying, "USA will last to abandon Taiwan."Does the new international situation of "after Gan" affect the long -term power balance in East Asia in the US and China, which is the fate of Taiwan, and the future administration of President Tsai, which emphasizes the United States?。
Emphasize "friendship" with Japan
"I believe that Taiwan and Japan work together and the friendship will continue for a long time."In May 2021, when the discussion of Taiwanese events was exciting, President Tsai -in -wen greeted the ceremony at the ceremony of the Japanese engineer who was involved in the water interest business in southern Taiwan during the pre -war colonial era.It commemorates the 100th anniversary of Yoichi Hatta engineer from Kanazawa, and the ceremony is opened by connecting Tainan and Kanazawa online, where mango production is thriving, and the venue in Tainan is Taipei.I rushed from.Hatta is the one who died in the summer of 20, who died in the summer of 20, as "one of the most loved Japanese in Taiwan."
In conjunction with the ceremony, the representative of Taipei's Economic and Culture Representatives (equivalent to Ambassador to Japan) visited Masanori Tanimoto and Governor Ishikawa Prefecture, and said, "Increasing the connection with Mr. Hatta, who is also listed in textbooks.I want to deepen in Japanese. "The representative of the same President Lee, who studied at Kyoto University, is a member of the Taiwanese political world, who was a member of the current ruling and the Democratic Party (1986) and served as the Prime Minister (Prime Minister).
In Taiwan, there are various perspectives in Japanese colonial rule.The Taiwanese leaders express their "friendship" and "bonds" with Japan without diplomatic relations (1), and Japan has strengthened the alliance with the United States, which is the backing of Taiwan Defense.Close to Taiwan, there is a U.S. military base in Okinawa, and it is nothing but Taiwan's safety important (former executive of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs).At the Japan -US Summit Meeting (April), the EU Summit Meeting (May), and the Seven Advanced (G7) Summit (June), leading the role of taking up "Taiwan" with the United States.I did Japan.Expectations for Japanese diplomatic influence in Western countries are high.At the ceremony attended by President Tsai, video messages of leading politicians in Taiwan, including Shinzo Abe and Yoshiro Mori, were introduced one after another.
Taiwan deeply understands that Japanese public opinion is to support Taiwan support in Japanese politics.When a disaster occurs in Japan, President Tsai's SNS will write a message in Japanese.The purpose of President Tsai's side is to "develop the text and send it immediately in consideration of public opinion's reaction" (Nichidai -related) is also the purpose of having a sense of solidarity with Taiwan.
Skilled rice table cooperation
President Tsai has been promoting foreign policies in cooperation with Japan and the United States, which stands for the "free and open Indian Pacific Ocean", and has clarified the position of a member of the "democracy" camp in the "democracy -to -donation" of the Biden administration.。Associate Professor Ryo Sabashi (International Politics) of the University of Tokyo is a recent book, saying, "The positive attitude of the United States has become outstanding in the US and China relations.In response to the movement, the United States has been trying to suppress and deter the two in a way to maintain the status quo. Now, the United States often moves to change the relationship (Note 2).
Regarding the United States, which strengthens the relationship with Taiwan, Professor Kinuki Ogasawara (Taiwan Politics) of Tokyo University of Foreign Studies (Taiwan Politics), "The Biden administration is in an unofficial relationship by saying the" one Chinese "policy, and has decided in China.While avoiding the opposition, we are steadily promoting Taiwan -oriented measures more steadily than the Trump administration. One Chinese policy is a guardian.You should have been suffering from a sense of clogging due to the offensive. "
The emphasis on the Biden administration's Taiwanese administration is an invitation to the Taiwanese office of Taipei Economic and Culture, the President of Taipei Economic Culture (January 2001).This is the first time since the US Taishotai breakthrough in 1979, and in April, in April of Taipei's President Tsai, an unofficial representative, including former Richard Armitage Deputy Secretary of State (Note 3), visited, and a policy that emphasized Taiwan was conveyed.It was.Xiao has long served as a member of the Democratic Party, a member of the Democratic Party (parliamentarians), who has been strongly independent, and has been working on a member of the United States and Japan as a chief of the International Office.In the presidential election, Mr. Tsai was sweaty, and Mr. Tsai during the opposition era has expanded his personal connections with US Democratic Party officials such as Antony Brinken (current Secretary of State).
Appeal "Indian Pacific"
It is Kure ● Director (Foreign Minister) who promotes the relationship with the United States along with Xiao.In one of the leading US Division, the Democratic Party who has experienced the United States, he has performed online interviews with media such as Europe and Australia (Note 4), accusing China's military intimidation, "Democracy", "Free", "Human Rights", and "Indian Pacific".He uses his words to support Taiwan.(● is "Rittou")
The Taiwanese lobby activity in the United States had an influence on the world's leading foreign currency reserves during the Lee -Waki administration, including the Taiwan Strait crisis (95-96).However, in the 2000s, the US economy and China were drawn to the huge Chinese market increased, and Taiwan, which had shortage of funds, was inferior.Taiwan returned to the United States in the United States, which is a supervisor and a sense of distrust in China, and has attracted attention for "Democracy Taiwan" and "Taiwan, which succeeded by Corona" under the human rights of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and Hong Kong.
The Tsai administration is on the flow of Taiwan and other G7s and hopes to collaborate with US and European Union (EU), which is involved in the Indian Pacific region. Many European countries share the values of "human rights" and "democracy". In September 2001, the EU announced the first Indian Pacific strategy, including strengthening relations with Taiwan. In July, Lithuania acknowledged the establishment of a representative office under the name of "Taiwan" instead of "Taipei". An executive of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan said, "The position of Taiwan has changed dramatically in the past year. Taiwan is not covered by Europe for a long time, and only Japan and the United States are" non -sediment -aircraft carriers ", which once only Japan and the United States. He has been interested in it. It has increased strategic value for global interest targets as "the world's semiconductor supply." The Tsai administration aims to support US Taiwan support by expanding the relationship with democratic countries such as Europe.
President Tsai, which is ranged as realistic
The United States cooperates with the Cai administration because it is trusted that it will not provociate China and become a leading role in Taiwan.President Tsai has refused China's unified requests and is in a position to maintain the status quo that does not move "independence."The United States does not accept the movement of "Taiwan Independence", which causes military collisions.The Cart Campbell National Security Council Indo -Pacific coordinator also expressed the conventional US principle that "independence is not supported" while emphasizing the substantial relationship with Taiwan.Former President of the Democratic Party (00-08), the Former President of the Democratic Party (00-08), has expanded independent colors, enhancing tension with China, leading to discord with the United States.Former President of the KMT (2008-16) has improved his relationship with China, reducing the risk of Taiwanese emergency, but has been alert to Taiwanese public opinion, which opposes the unification of unity.
President Tsai, who acquired a doctoral law in the UK and was familiar with Europe and the United States, has been working on international negotiations such as the WTO (World Trade Organization), with the Lee and Chen administration.He takes the lessons of the past administration, which is far from the United States and China, and is now described as a leader who can respond to Washington's intentions.
Professor Ogasawara of Tokyo University of Foreign University said, "It is also an important factor that President Tsai's status quo route has been understood.It maintains the outer frame of the Republic of China and keeps the Taiwanese identity in the inside, and is quietly promoting realistic, clever and clever measures.He is studying the last line that does not give excuse to China. President Tsai has won the trust of the United States.Among the Taiwanese experts, the top of the Kayasai is not Mr. Trump or Chen, whose behavior was unpredictable, but as long as Biden and Tsai, there is no excessive provocation by Taiwan, which escalates military tension.It is being.
Tip semiconductor of reinforcements
The major reinforcements of President Tsai are the world's most advanced semiconductor technology.The world's largest semiconductor contract production, Taiwanese Democratic Countermillation (TSMC), which is also attracting attention in the US -China stand.In the first place, one of the major reasons why Taiwan is concerned is that it is a semiconductor production base that continues to be supply globally.The U.S. government has been banned from selling semiconductors produced in US manufacturing equipment and the like to the Chinese telecommunications equipment company, Huawei (Huawei).TSMC Huawei was the second -leader semiconductor for smartphones after Apple in the United States, but TSMC stopped selling to Huawei and decided to build a semiconductor factory in Arizona in accordance with the invitation of the United States.
"Because it depends on the competition of the world's high -tech industry, TSMC has been a trump card for the US's" Huawei sealing measures, "" said Momoko Kawakami, the Asian Economic Research Institute of Japan.I'm the director of the research center.Mr. Kawakami said, "A case that symbolizes the current East Asia, which is at the mercy of the high -tech hegemony competition in the United States. The United States has a deep historic connection in the market and a market in China.China is accelerating the development of the semiconductor industry due to China sanctions. It is expected that both the US and China will attract Taiwanese manufacturing bases, and Taiwan is going to be a high -tech human resource mowing place. "
The TSMC founder is Morris Chang, who is said to be the father of Taiwan Semiconductor. President Tsai has been assigned to Taiwan of the Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (APEC) summit. The Taiwanese government has released photos lined with three people, U.S. Secretary of State Keith Crack, President Tsai, and Zhang, who visited in September 2005 (Note 5). It is one piece that can read the Tsai administration and the intentions of the United States who want to indicate the cooperation of the US stand. TSMC's "semiconductor champion" is a composition that enhances the value of economic security in Taiwan, which has no diplomatic relations with major countries (Note 6). The Tsai administration intends to promote cooperation with Japan -US and Europe while the diplomatic value of semiconductors is high and promote international frameworks, such as the Pacific Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP). Former President Tsai said in an interview with the author that the development of the semiconductor industry was important for future Taiwan, and technical cooperation with Japan and the United States was needed. Former President Lee, who had emphasized economic security early, has now supported his student, President Tsai.
The strong economy has been relied on China
It depends on the economy and public opinion in the future of the US -Japan -oriented Tsai administration.The outlook for gross production (GDP) in 21 years has been revised to an increase of 5.88 % from the previous year and has been performing well.In the first half (January to June), exports were recorded in half a year, the record high of $ 206.9 billion (up 31 % year -on -year).The largest export destination China (including Hong Kong) increased 32.6 % year -on -year, accounting for 42.8 % of exports (Note 7).The pillar semiconductor is the leading role, and the percentage of exports is increasing.The largest user (market) is China, and China and Hong Kong are growing.TSMC also operated the Nanjing Plant in China four years ago, and many related companies passed from Taiwan to the site, revealing the expansion of the Nanjing Plant in 2009.The strong economy depends on China.
However, due to the decrease in China's direct investment, the effect of China (enclosing politics in business), which puts pressure on Taiwanese administration through Taiwanese companies and other companies, has been rapidly reduced. There is also a view that it is (Note 8). The US -China economic decoupling (separation), which shakes East Asian industry, is also a tailwind for the Cai administration, which aims to break out of China. According to Nobugi Ito and the International Research Institute of International Economic Research Institute, many Taiwanese IT companies that have exported China as exports to the United States will promote a supply chain (supply) distributed in which the production and exports of products for the United States will be transferred outside China. 。 The IT products produced by Taiwanese companies in China are said to be because the US government has been able to exclude Chinese -made and overlap with the products that are subject to additional tariffs in the United States. Mr. Ito said, "Taiwan has become the main battlefield of IT's US -China conflict. Behind the movement of Taiwanese companies that dispersed US exports in Southeast Asia and Taiwan, there are requests from US customers such as Google and Apple. It is being done. "
The Tsai administration will promote a company that returns to Taiwan, aiming to escape from China, and will provide support for land, power, and employment (returning to Taiwan).Servers and liquid crystal panels are approved, creating employment within the region, leading to economic growth.The other is the “Shin -South Muko” policy, and is a modern version of the southern policy during the Lee and Chen administration, which promotes economic relations with Southeast Asia and elsewhere.Although the economic effect is small, it is positioned as one of the external measures linked to the US Indian Pacific strategy.Participation in the TPP has expressed his expectations for the Cai administration as an economic growth and a way to escape from China.The official application was made in September, but China has also applied for participation before Taiwan, and the future is unclear.
"Public against Afghan"
Public opinion trends in conjunction with the economy.In Taiwan, Hong Kong's democratic crackdown is completely far away from the "two -country system" that China has called.The awareness that "I am not a Chinese but a Taiwanese" is rising (Note 9), and in a survey asking "Is the Chinese government a friend of Taiwan", "opposition" is the past.The highest 73 % (Note 10).The second term of President Tsai was up to 24 years.The Democratic Party who does not recognize the "one Chinese" principle, such as "I will not return to the government that is dominant with China with the power of China in Hong Kong or the suppression of human rights in Hong Kong" (male in my forties in Taiwan).Many people take the view that they will be entrusted.
What happened there was the confusion of Afghan.Chinese media wrote an article on the Taiwanese opposition and opposition media, saying, "Today's Afghan is tomorrow's Taiwan" and "USA will abandon Taiwan" as if it shakes the public opinion of the United States.There were also voices anxious about the Cai administration's "US -sided downside".Taiwan's public opinion is likely to be upset in China's "public opinion."This is because there is no desire to have a decisive conflict with China, mainly by opposition party supporters, and there are public opinion that is wary of excessive expectations for the United States.In Taiwan, where the declining birthrate and aging population are declining, some residents believe that "we cannot compete with China that can freely increase defense costs," and "If the economy worsens, we question valuable taxes for expensive US weapons purchases."The voice is raised."
Among Taiwanese officials, "Taiwan, which is geopolitically important in the US Indian Pacific strategy, is different from Afghan", "Connecting Afghan and Taiwan is Chinese political discourses", "US -oriented policies have changed."There are various perspectives, such as the inevitable, but the impact on public opinion, "rather, the cooperation of the rice stand will accelerate."Some Taipei pointed out that Afgan situation would be an opportunity to accelerate the movement of defense cooperation with the United States or to respond carefully, and that Afghan situations would be a trigger for the division of Taiwan public opinion.
"The U.S. Army should not fight against Afghan's willingness to fight himself in a speech after the fall of Kabul," said President Biden.The United States has long been seeking an increase in defense costs in Taiwan.In response to Afghan, the Cai administration has called for strengthening self -defense and unity of residents.Opposition and the KMT have the highest priority on the relationship with the United States, which is vigorously in Taiwan's defense.The Taiwanese administration will be forced to develop more defense.
In the United States, it is unclear whether China's poor image continues.The U.S. government does not always regard the perspective of human rights and political systems in diplomatic and security policies, but sometimes a very realistic perspective has been repeated in US diplomatic history (Note 11).Taiwan has been shaken by US -China relations, such as breaking with the United States, and many residents take a cold view of "Taiwanese discussions in the United States."The Bush administration, which had previously been approaching Taiwan as a "strategic competition partner" in the 2001 US terrorist attacks, has turned into a collaboration against China to perform the terrorist war.The background of China's "public opinion" has a certain effect is this history over the US and China.
"Maintenance of the status quo" and the role of Japan
As the military balance between the United States and China is in East Asia, how can we maintain the status quo of the Taiwan Strait? Professor Matsuda of the University of Tokyo lists four conditions. <1> U.S. military enhances abilities and continues to be involved in Taiwan (does not abandon Taiwan) <2> Strengthening the Japan -US alliance and functioning <3> The inhabitants of the residents to maintain the current situation (3> The maintenance is maintained (not giving up the resistance) and the international community supports <4> Taiwan in suppresses excessive provocation of China. Regarding <1> and <3>, Professor Matsuda said, "The sale of weapons to Taiwan does not significantly change the military balance between the United States and China, but the Taiwanese residents in the face of China do not give up on defense efforts. The effect is great. " In order to confront China's "public battle", the importance of "maintaining the confidence of Taiwanese residents" may increase.
In Washington, "it is not necessary to provoke China on purpose, but it is necessary to work out to secure an international status in Taiwan (Note 12), saying that it is expected to have a new role in Japan. high. How should Japan be involved with Taiwan? Professor Matsuda said, "To improve Japan's defense power and strengthen the US -Japan alliance, it will lead to deterrence of Taiwanese emergency. China will have a psychological warfare that will sway in residents after Afghan's confusion, and the United States is supported by Taiwan. He has expressed a message. The United States needs to be afraid of the world, and Japan, which is close to Taiwan, plays a different role from the United States. The isolated Taiwan public opinion is easy to be upset and supports the confidence of the inhabitants. Is important. Japan is to continue to show interest in Taiwan so that residents can lead to peace of mind. Providing Corona vaccine is a good example. A way to engage with Taiwan (in the non -military field). It will be necessary to proceed with coordination and cooperation. "
Conventional support such as Corona measures
There are human interaction, such as traffic tourists, experience of support in the event of a disaster, and good resident public opinion (Note 13).In the 1999 Taiwanese earthquake, Japan sent an international emergency aid squad, and the world's largest over 200 billion yen was sent from Taiwan in the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011.Taiwan donated a "friendship mask" in the spring of 2010, when Japan was lacking in a mask, and in the middle of September, Japan had a total of 3.9 million vaccines.
The interest of Taiwanese residents in May and June, whose infection was re -expanded, was more international procurement of vaccines than in Taiwan.The United States also provided 2.5 million times.It will be realistic to coordinate the roles of the United States with a view to Taiwan, and to expand the cooperation of the civilian and economic fields, such as epidemic control, medical care, and mitigation, such as measures against new colona, such as measures against new colona.This is because we can gain a wide range of public public opinion, both international and Nissai.According to the vaccine, "Taiwanese people felt that Japan was carefully considering Taiwan. Even if pressure from China, it will lead to the support of Taiwanese people who aim to maintain the status quo in Taiwan in the future."" (Professor Ogasawara).
However, although Taiwan's emotions to Japan are good, it is important to note that if there is a perception that "Taiwan is a Japanese ally".Most of the residents are not trusting Japan.In the Nodai, institutional relationships have been advanced, such as the Long -Evil Party administration, which was incorporated in China, but rather, such as the long -standing concerned fishery agreement (13 years) and the investment agreement (11 years).It will be necessary to exchange opinions with the opposition parties who emphasize the relationship with China.
After working as an ambassador in the Netherlands and Brazil, Mr. Ikeda, the representative of the exchange association Taipei office, said, "Taiwan, whose free and democracy has been established, is an important partner and friend for Japan. Infectors such as new colona are the world.It is a task, and it is necessary to cooperate to expand the international space of Taiwan, such as participating in the WHO (World Health Organization) observer. Taiwan is an important member in the Indian Pacific region, based on economic and technical skills.It is natural to be a member of the TPP and other members, and the bridge between Europe, the United States and Taiwan will also be the role of Japan. "
The Xi Jinping administration in China continues to intimidate armed forces, and it is becoming more important to have enough taiwanese events.Mr. Ikeda said, "If the" Taiwanese emergency "occurs in the future and the U.S. military will be dispatched, Japan may move the SDF to support the U.S. military.He says that it will be a major issue in Japan's diplomatic and security strategies, as to how to work on the "Peace and Stability of the Taiwan Strait", which was claimed at the G7 Summit.
In Taiwan, the United States and their allies will be more noticeable about how they are involved in Taiwan.In 2010, it has been 50 years since Japan and China, that is, Japan and Taiwan have been in the 50th year.How do you face Taiwan, which has no diplomatic relations?I would like to strategically consider it in conjunction with the United States and China, and proceed calmly.
※この論考は調査研究本部が発行する「読売クオータリー」掲載されたものです。読売クオータリーにはほかにも関連記事や注目の論考を多数収載しています。最新号の内容やこれまでに掲載された記事・論考の一覧はこちらにまとめています。