Future decarbonization and electrification, the path of Japan ... Experts talk at the ReVision Mobility Summit
"ReVision Mobility Summit Looking to the Future of Mobility, Searching for Optimal Business Solutions" was held on March 2nd. For the keynote speech on the first day, three experts from various fields gave their respective lectures, and finally a panel discussion was held.
◆ Motorization technology has become more interesting
Prior to the keynote speech, Mr. Kazuo Shimizu, an international automobile journalist, gave a presentation on issues, paths, and corporate directions regarding carbon neutrality. Mr. Shimizu also acted as a moderator for the panel discussion and distributed the entire keynote speech.
Mr. Shimizu commented that from the beginning of the year, there were a series of BEV, PHEV, and HEV test drive events by domestic companies, and the manufacturer's efforts were not only technical but also driving pleasure. The low center of gravity and motor dynamics are also good at driving performance and control on snowy roads. For example, even with the same studless tires, it is easy to optimize the ability of studless sipe because it is possible to apply torque very finely in engine cars and motor cars. It is said that electrification has entered an era that is also interesting as a vehicle technology.
However, even if motor dynamics is not all-purpose, it stabs a nail. He also said that PHEVs are a shortcut to zero emissions in total for the time being, as there are still issues related to batteries. Regarding engines, he pointed out the possibility of hydrogen and e-Fuel as further technologies.
◆ Sky / Low / Ground: Where and how will the automobile industry fight?
The next speaker was Professor Takahiro Fujimoto of Waseda University. He proposed one of the paths the industry is aiming for, entitled "Automotive Industry in the 2020s: Drawing a Path from a Three-Layer Model of Sky, Low, and Ground to CASE Evolution and CO2 Reduction."
Mr. Fujimoto's argument is that the accumulation of objective data is based on the premise that the carbon-neutral target figures around 2030 proposed by each country and company cannot be achieved by EV alone. Therefore, each country or the world needs to do this in total war. So what should the domestic automobile industry do? Mr. Fujimoto divided the current global economy into three layers, "above," "low," and "ground," and developed each strategy.
Mr. Fujimoto said, "Japan's manufacturing industry has lost in local wars and has not grown in the last 30 years. However, it is still a country with a market value of 110 trillion yen, and it has not won or lost." Suppose it's a situation. In the world, a company called GAFA holds the market and economy. They practice a modular economy. It is a business that organizes businesses, markets, and technologies like modules on a platform. Japan is said to be an "integral type" that integrates markets and technologies as products and services by "matching".
Currently, the United States and China are successful in the modular type. It corresponds to the "sky" in the third layer. Most of the added value is on the cloud and cyber, and it can be said that it is a world without weight. However, it also holds down the air superiority of the business. Japan's strength lies in its integral type. Since it is not realistic to build a platform from now on, we will develop business at "low altitude" and "ground" with technologies and products that make use of the coordination. "Ground" is an existing manufacturing business. A world of quality and reliability through advanced design, high productivity, and precise process control. "Low altitude" is the world of "cyber physical" that connects the real manufacturing industry with IoT and cloud. Indutory 4.0 corresponds to this.
What should Japan, which is good at ground warfare, do in the future? Mr. Fujimoto points out as follows.
"In the ground strategy, it is important to strengthen the production capacity of variables, variants, and current transformers by cyber physical in smart factories, etc. In the low-altitude strategy, data utilization that does not keep products sold, and in the high-altitude strategy, low-altitude / ground Selling your company's standards and products to platformers with the added value strengthened in the above as a differentiating factor. "
If each layer is classified by products and services, next-generation powertrains, ECUs, and embedded software will be ground strategies, and autonomous driving will require a strategy that supports a wide range from the ground to the sky. Infotainment and mobility services will be in the air.
◆ The key to the strategy is PHEV, but light vehicles are EV
Second, Mitsubishi Motors Executive Officer, General Manager of EV / Powertrain Technology Development Division, Akira Shirakawa, talked about the company's PHEV strategy in carbon neutrality worldwide.
Mr. Shirakawa said, "CO2 reduction is a problem that must be dealt with immediately," and solves the need for carbon-neutral vehicles from the trends of each country. Mitsubishi Motors is the first manufacturer in Japan to develop and sell a mass-produced passenger car using lithium-ion batteries. We will use that knowledge to tackle this problem, but considering the energy situation in the market area targeted by LCA and the company, we recognize that EV still has many issues.
Next-generation powertrains will be HEVs, PHEVs, EVs, and FCVs. The issues faced by these are limited to four, CO2 emissions, cruising range, refueling (charging) time, and cost. Although HEVs do not match the other three types in terms of CO2 emissions, other issues are almost cleared. However, the global trend is toward the abolition of engines (internal combustion engines or fossil fuels) in the medium to long term.
The answer given by Mitsubishi Motors is that "PHEV is the optimal solution in Japan and Southeast Asia for the time being." Environmental problems, including LCA, are deeply related to the energy situation and policies of each country and region. For example, in China (and Japan), where there is a lot of thermal power generation, the benefits of EV cannot be fully utilized. The reason why PHEVs are the current solution is to consider future changes in these circumstances.
However, the ultimate goal is BEV. Despite problems such as battery cost and market, it is expected that it will be difficult for small cars and light cars to evolve from the physical body size via PHEV.
As EVs become more popular, the performance of the company's S-AWC, an active control technology for yaw moments, can be further enhanced. It has already been adopted for motor-driven PHEVs, but the control speed is 10 times that of the engine and the accuracy (resolution) is 2 to 5 times that of the engine, enabling fine-grained control.
In addition, the battery of an electric vehicle can be added value such as a power supply for a cold storage vehicle and V2L. The company has already introduced an electric vehicle to the transport vehicle of the corona vaccine. If you use the V2L outlet, it can be used as a power source in the event of a disaster or as a power source for respiratory organs and medical equipment. He emphasized the merits of electric vehicles.
◆ 2030 is the turning point of strategy switching
The third is "Mobility Business Strategy in the Carbon Neutral Era" by Shinya Omori, President and CEO of Sumisho ABeam Automotive Research Institute.
Mr. Omori analyzes the world's carbon neutral strategy on a timeline. It is a way to think about the strategy from now to 2030 and the strategy from 2030 to 2050 in two stages. This is because 2030 will be a turning point when considering the approach to business, and the strategy may change significantly. Therefore, in addition to the strategy for the next 10 years, the strategy after 2030 is also important.
"At this stage, we are in the phase of electrification and systemization, and after 2030, we are in the phase of cleanliness and value creation." Especially in the second phase, unestablished innovations such as energy cleanup and hydrogen technology are the keys. It will be a factor. Here, it is necessary not only to innovate technology but also to change people's behavior.
After that, we will explain each of them in four quadrants: electrification, systemization, cleanliness, and value creation.
First, for electrification, BEV is an essential technology for carbon neutrality, but it is clear that replacement of existing vehicles will not end in 2030 even if new vehicle sales continue to increase. Efforts to increase BEV are necessary, but allowances other than BEV are also required to achieve the carbon neutral target.
Systematization holds the key. The development of mobility systems will lead to more efficient movement and resource saving. It is necessary to aim for CO2 reduction in a complex manner by combining techniques with the evolution of vehicle technology represented by CASE, movement due to sharing, and changes in the concept of ownership. Of course, it is necessary to support not only new BEVs but also existing cars, HEVs, PHEVs, etc. Connected is essential for this to happen, and we anticipate that transformations such as multimodal MaaS, sound-cycle economy, and DX will accelerate.
After 2030, it is in the phase of cleanliness and value creation. It is important to reduce CO2 by technology for cleanliness, but unestablished technology such as hydrogen is also a high risk. In order to diversify risks, it is necessary to develop a mechanism for risk diversification involving many stakeholders and appropriate distribution of returns. Such an idea is difficult to get out of the pure manufacturing industry.
It is necessary to convert this into new value, but we will consider this in two ways: conversion through the system and conversion through the business. There is a move by IFRS to require reporting of carbon emissions. Carbon credits and emissions trading are also examples of new value conversions. In terms of business, it aims to reduce costs by improving efficiency, policy subsidies, improve productivity, and increase cash flow through investment.
◆ Japan should act in the correct theory
In the panel discussion, Mr. Shimizu of Deletata also started with a question from the content of the lecture, "Mr. Fujimoto says that it is important to extinguish the fire in front of you for CO2 countermeasures."
"The goal of 2050, such as the EU, is to extinguish the fire in two years. CO2 reduction means that it is necessary to extinguish the fire that is occurring in front of us. I think it is important to form an international agreement on efforts with various technologies like Japan. Their strategy has the cause of CO2 reduction, but in each theory, the military officers of each country They should have established a strategy. Of course, it is natural for each country to plan a game change that is advantageous to their own country, but Japan should take reasonable actions and strategies. Countries that support it will follow. "(Mr. Fujimoto) )
In response, Mr. Shirakawa responded as follows.
"There is no international definition in LCA discussions. In this state, discussions are just a play on words. JAMA is working on creating and working on LCA standards, but if there are standards, it will be possible to make a fair evaluation. Become "(Mr. Shirakawa)
In the discussion of the emphasis area and the competitive area, Mr. Shimizu said, "The public and private sectors were able to move well in SIP level 3 autonomous driving, but Japan, which has become stronger in competition, is actually weak in the cooperative area? For example, Germany has emissions trading. There is a movement to measure and use the emission data of actual vehicles. "
"As for data linkage, Japan, which is strong in B2C products, can be a more reach point for its automobiles. I think that data utilization can be opened by utilizing the Japanese car brand and reliability. It is true that the Japanese manufacturing industry does not partner with business. There is a tendency, but I think it's good to get around like a professional wrestler. "(Mr. Fujimoto)
"Emphasis areas are a big theme. If we can create a mechanism for risk sharing and fair returns for social issues, innovation and breakthroughs in unestablished areas will progress. Overseas, we will successfully connect to business in collaboration with universities. There is "(Mr. Omori)
◆ Japan confronts structural reforms and energy issues
When asked by Mr. Shimizu, "Japan has a strong supply chain, is structural reform necessary here, is reform going on?", Mr. Omori said, "I feel that the software domain is getting stronger and software first is progressing. Mr. Fujimoto replied, "BEV is a product from the sky, but it is also a physical existence and ground grinding technology is inevitable. In this sense, I think that automobiles cannot be PCs or smartphones. The key to increasing the effective demand for BEVs is how to create attractive BEVs. "
Mr. Shirakawa said, "EV has the difficulty of being an EV. It is necessary to take a different approach from the internal combustion engine just for heat exchange and temperature control of batteries and motors. There are many basic research fields that should be utilized for EV in addition to weight reduction. I added.
Finally, in response to the question "What will happen to the gas dependence of European energy in the future?", Mr. Fujimoto said, "Of course, we need to respond to changes. I think each country's true intentions will come out around next year. I answered.
Carbon neutrality is a common challenge and no one can escape. Each country is also required to make strict choices in a situation where it is difficult to read ahead. Japan, which lacks resources, will need to squeeze more wisdom.